College Football Picks: Week 1

College football is finally back.  Don’t get me wrong, I love the summer.  Sunshine, baseball, watching old TV shows on Netflix instant for hours at a time.  I love it all.  But there’s just something about the start of football season that makes me feel born again.  In addition to being an avid fan, I’m an (allegedly) high-functioning alcoholic gambling addict.  So I thought that this fall I would share with you, my adoring fans and people searching for tit boners, an inside look at my weekly gambling decisions.

You might be wondering why I think I’m qualified to be giving gambling advice.  It’s no secret that I am not a professional handicapper, nor have I ever had inside information about anything.  But, I am a college football junkie.  My fall Saturdays are spent in my dank apartment or even danker bars watching college football on as many television stations as my cable company can charge me for.   Because of this obsession, I usually win more than I lose.  I think this paragraph has done an appropriate amount of jinxing, so let’s move on to this week’s picks.

Picking the first week is tough, there’s a lot of uncertain and “gut feeling” kind of picks because even the odds makers don’t have a great sense for all of these teams yet.  But a great place to find value in the first week is in over/under bets.  Later in the season, when the folks in Vegas are really dialed in, amateurs like me get easily suckered into giving away our money on over/under bets.  This first week, though, even The Greek himself can’t be sure what the totals are going to be.

Not even Greek

My strategy this first week is to find two teams with lots of offense and take the over.  And I do that by geography.  Using the best kind of evidence, anecdotal, I’ve found that teams from our nation’s oil and natural gas regions tend to have high octane (get it?) offenses.

Here's where I'm talking about. Note the location of the oil spill. Coincidence?

It may have something to do with the trace amounts of fossil fuels in their water, but teams from that region love offense and only call defense on certain weekends when they’re drunk and lonely.  So let’s put my theory to the test and look at some games involving teams from the offense-belt where we can pound the over (all lines from covers.com):

Tulsa at Oklahoma:  OVER 65.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Oklahoma State: OVER 64.5.

BYU at Ole Miss:  OVER 57.  BYU is from a high octane zone border state, but we’ll let them in on this.

Oregon at LSU (at JerryWorld):  OVER 54.5.  Do we drill for oil in Oregon? We should.

Northwestern at Boston College:  If there is a place that is the antithesis of everything the oil states stand for, it is Boston.  UNDER 44.5.

And, presenting my FREE MONEY LOCK OF THE WEEK:  TCU at Baylor (Friday night),  OVER 54.

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One Response to College Football Picks: Week 1

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