This is a week for the road warriors. It’s happened already this season, but it seems to me that this week the handicappers may be giving a little too much credit to home teams. According to covers.com, home teams are only 237-235-5 against the spread this season. Home favorites are actually below .500 against the spread, at 170-172-4. As I was looking at the slate of games this week, I saw some home teams that I thought were being given way too much credit. All lines courtesy of covers.com
Virginia Tech at Duke: See, this is what I’m talking about. Duke doesn’t even have a home field advantage to begin with. They play in a stadium that is put to shame by many junior high schools, and they don’t have a fan base.
There will undoubtedly be at least two times the amount of Virginia Tech fans there this weekend than there will be Duke fans. Duke is actually improved this year, but improved by Duke’s standards just means they aren’t the worst team in the league. Virginia Tech -14.5
Oklahoma at Kansas State: Oklahoma saw their dreams shattered last weekend against Texas Tech. I feel like I say this every week, but Kansas State is now 7-0 and are getting no love. They did it against a fairly week schedule, and this game begins a brutal stretch for them (Oklahoma, @ Oklahoma State, Texas A&M) that will really test their mettle. So I’m picking the road team to roll, right? Wrong. I’m done disrespecting Kansas State. I’m going against everything I said in the opening paragraph and taking Kansas State +13.5
Iowa State at Texas Tech: Texas Tech is riding high after knocking off Oklahoma. Now they return to Lubbock to take on perennial doormat Iowa State. Texas Tech is much better than Iowa State, but I think this is the proverbial “Admiral Akbar” game.
Texas Tech will experience a post-Oklahoma hangover. The post-Oklahoma hangover is most similar to the post-whiskey hangover. It lasts for a week and causes you to embarrass yourself. Iowa State +14
Baylor at Oklahoma State: I just have to bet the over on this one. There aren’t enough idioms for sex to express just how much SCORING is going to go on in this game. It would be insulting to even try. Vegas has set the over absurdly high, but Oklahoma State has managed to hit this total multiple times already this season. OVER 79
Missouri at Texas A&M: When this is an SEC match-up I’ll recommend the under. But because they are still in the Big 10 I’m going with the over. OVER 63.5
FREE MONEY LOCK OF THE WEEK: Michigan State at Nebraska: Last week Michigan State knocked off a Wisconsin team that many Midwesterners considered to be the best team in the country. They haven’t gone on the road much so far, so the Spartans are a little unproven in that regard: They lost to Notre Dame in South Bend and struggled with a mediocre Ohio State team in Columbus. But I think Nebraska is overrated, and their corn-shucking fans are getting too much credit in the point spread. I just hope that the game isn’t too close for the sake of Mike D’Antoni’s health. Michigan State +4
Last week: 2-4
Season Total: 23-24-1